Reproductive Timing and Family Structure as Determinants of Early-Life Mortality in Historical Poland

Linda Koníková; Patryk Pankowski; Miroslav Králík; Grażyna Liczbińska

doi:10.52024/hlcs24844

Author(s)

Linda Koníková Department of Anthropology, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic https://orcid.org/0009-0003-1631-2957
Patryk Pankowski Doctoral School of Natural Sciences, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznań, Poland https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7404-4362
Miroslav Králík Department of Anthropology, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2077-4068
Grażyna Liczbińska The Institute of Human Biology and Evolution, Faculty of Biology, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznań, Poland https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0922-4612

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52024/hlcs24844

Keywords:

Infant mortality, Child mortality, Family history, Historical demography, Parental age, Sibling sex composition

Abstract

This study examines how parental age, birth spacing, sibling number and sex composition, and local socioeconomic and environmental conditions shaped early-life mortality in 19th-century urban Poland. Using reconstructed family histories from the Poznań Historical Population Database, we estimated the risk of infant mortality (before age 1) and child mortality (ages 1–5). Generalized additive models (GAMs) with a binomial logistic link were fitted separately for firstborn (n = 1,023) and laterborn children (n = 2,572). Among firstborns, a larger parental age difference was associated with lower child mortality, potentially reflecting selective mating or differences in parental resources and investment. Among laterborns, infant mortality declined with increasing paternal age, consistent with greater socioeconomic stability among older fathers. Infant mortality was higher following the death of a preceding brother, whereas child mortality was lower among children with a preceding brother. Although birth order and interbirth interval showed no significant direct associations, the protective effect of having a preceding brother weakened with increasing birth order. Mortality risks also varied across parishes, underscoring the importance of local socioeconomic and environmental conditions. Elevated parish-level infant mortality among male firstborns was consistent with established patterns of male vulnerability in early life. Overall, these findings provide new evidence on the determinants of early-life mortality in 19th-century Poznań and highlight the value of integrating biological, familial, and contextual factors when examining early-life survival in historical populations.

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