Household-Anchored Record Linkage in Ottoman Population Registers. A Dynamic Tolerance Protocol for Low-Information Administrative Proto-Census Data

Abstract

Ottoman population registers are often treated as sources suited primarily to static description. This article argues that their longitudinal potential depends less on data quality than on methodological choice. Drawing on three consecutive registers (1831, 1837 and 1841) from a rural village in Ottoman Anatolia, the study reconstructs individual trajectories using a household-anchored linkage protocol. Moving away from purely deterministic matching, this approach adopts an informed, guided probabilistic strategy to provide a method that is both flexible and rigid, prioritising household continuity and adaptable age progression. The analysis uncovers structured, age-specific attrition patterns, which hints at substantive life-course interruptions rather than problems with the source or the matching procedure. Specifically, the differentiated trajectories observed across life stages during the mid-1830s are consistent with a period of demographic stress, demonstrating the capacity of these registers to function as dynamic sources for historical demography.